Bitcoin $10.5B Options Expiry May End Bear Run

Bitcoin options worth $10.5 billion are approaching their monthly expiry on Friday, setting the stage for a potential shift in market momentum. BTC climbed to an eight-day high on Wednesday after forming a double bottom near $62,500, yet the leading cryptocurrency remains 21% below its price from one month ago, according to derivatives data. The question now is whether bulls can stage a last-minute rally or if bears will cement their dominance through the February settlement.

Deribit Leads With 76% Market Share

Deribit continues to dominate Bitcoin options trading with a 76% market share heading into Friday's expiry. The exchange holds $4.5 billion in call (buy) options alongside $3.4 billion in put (sell) instruments, according to open interest data. OKX occupies second place with $610 million in calls and $385 million in puts, accounting for 10% of the overall total. CME rounds out the top three at 5% market share, carrying $255 million in calls and $287 million in puts.

At the aggregate level, put options open interest appears roughly 25% lower than equivalent call options. However, a deeper examination of the data reveals a different picture entirely. Bitcoin's sharp decline below $75,000 in early February caught most neutral-to-bullish strategies off guard, fundamentally altering the calculus for call option holders heading into settlement day.

What Happens if Bitcoin Stays Below $70,000?

If Bitcoin remains below $70,000 on Friday, a staggering 88% of call options on Deribit will expire worthless, according to exchange data. Even after excluding calls targeting $105,000 and higher -- which are typically components of complex multi-leg strategies with lower acquisition costs -- only 37% of the remaining bets sit below $75,000. This places the effective call options open interest on Deribit at approximately $780 million, a fraction of the headline figure.

On the bearish side, $1.44 billion in put options open interest on Deribit targets Bitcoin prices below $60,000. However, bets placed at $40,000 and $45,000 strike prices likely did not aim for those exact levels. Calendar strategies and ratio spreads are commonly associated with such extreme price targets, as these instruments do not require an outright price crash to generate profitable returns for their holders.

Put options at $72,000 and above total $1.15 billion in open interest on Deribit, which is more than sufficient to offset the existing effective call options. As long as BTC remains below $75,000, the advantage continues to favor put instruments across the board.

Nvidia Earnings and the Nasdaq Connection

The outcome of Nvidia's earnings report after the U.S. market close on Wednesday could play a decisive role in Friday's options settlement. Although Bitcoin's decline toward $60,000 was likely not driven by macroeconomic trends directly, the health of the artificial intelligence sector -- particularly the sustainable operational margins of the world's largest technology companies -- remains critical for every risk-on asset class, according to market analysts.

The current 90% correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index serves as clear evidence that tech sector sentiment is the leading driver of trader confidence in crypto markets. Historical data suggests that Bitcoin's correlation with equities rarely persists for extended periods, but the timing of this alignment means Friday's $10.5 billion options expiry could ultimately be decided by stock market performance rather than crypto-native catalysts.

Three Scenarios for Friday's Expiry

Based on current price trends, derivatives data outlines three probable outcomes for Friday's BTC options expiry on Deribit. In every scenario analyzed, put option holders maintain a net advantage over their bullish counterparts.

• Between $65,000 and $69,000: The net result favors put (sell) instruments by $1.15 billion
• Between $69,001 and $71,000: The net result favors put (sell) instruments by $845 million
• Between $71,001 and $74,000: The net result favors put (sell) instruments by $470 million

What This Means Going Forward

Bitcoin bulls need a 9% rally from the present $68,800 level to shift the balance of power in Friday's February options expiry. Without a decisive surge above $75,000, put option holders maintain a clear structural advantage across all three expiry scenarios. The interplay between Nvidia's earnings catalyst and Bitcoin's tight correlation with the Nasdaq 100 will likely determine whether this massive $10.5 billion options settlement marks the end of the current bearish phase or extends selling pressure further into March.